Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4397.50 stop 4402.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +29 to -71 with all major world markets very Bearish. 

Catalysts: UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Hangover from Powell’s comments.   

Quick Tip: Stops

To survive and thrive in trading managing risk is critical. The basic component in your risk management plan is the stop loss (how much you are willing to lose on each trade). 

There are many types of stop loss methods including:

1. Dollar

2. Maximum Adverse Excursion 

3. Volatility

4. Moving Average

5. Time

6. Opposing signal 

7. Percent Retracement

Like your choice in style of trading, your stop loss method needs to resonate with your personality. You...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered and remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +29 with most major world markets Bullish.  

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year Bond Auction @ 13:01. Powell speaks on a panel discussion titled "Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy" @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Trade THIS Way

Should you trade multiple strategies? Or focus on one? 

Given a big enough account diversification becomes mandatory. You’ve never heard of a hedge fund that ran “one” strategy. But what about those of us with relatively smaller trading accounts? There are pros and cons. 

Pros: 

More trading opportunities. When one strategy is waiting for entry,...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: In a relatively narrow, slow session, neither level triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +33 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed Speakers @ 7:30, 8:00, 9:15, 10:00, and 13:25. Comments from the Fed’s Kashkari turn slightly hawkish. Today’s lineup of speakers should be closely monitored. 

Quick Tip: Context

You should have a trading strategy (or better yet, several) that is profitable over time. That’s called positive expectation or edge. It doesn’t mean they’re profitable all the time, just over enough time. 

If you are dedicated and document your strategy results by capturing...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4305.00 offered a 9.25-point move. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4275.75 stop 4270.00. Short 4367.75 stop 4371.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +25 with most major world markets modestly Bullish.

Catalysts: Employment Report @ 8:30. Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Which Market?

There are dozens of futures contracts available to trade. The question is which are best for you. Here’s a quick look at filtering for candidates: 

1. Volume. Without adequate volume you’ll experience slippage and not perform as well in the real world. 

2. Margin. Check with your broker and determine whether your account size can afford the margin required. Keep in mind that all brokers will give you more day-trading margin than...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (FOMC Filter applies from 14:00 to 15:00, no entries): 

Buy 4096.75 stop 4092.00. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to zero with Tokyo soaring and all other major world markets relatively flat. 

Catalysts: ADP Payroll @ 8:15. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & JOLTS @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00 & Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends sounds safer than picking a turning point. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it works. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4164.25 stop 4159.50. Short 4225.50 stop 4230.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +29 to +14 with China/HK struggling and the remaining major markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Home Price Index @ 9:00. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Waiting for FOMC tomorrow.   

Quick Tip: Sweet Dreams 

The futures market opens at 6:00 PM ET. It’s called the Globex session, and it is usually easier money than the day session. 

Why? The participants are different. Day session volume brings out all the large lot and algo traders and that creates a nosier effect on price action. 

If you’re thinking “I don’t have the time to analyze the market and know where to...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4126.50 picked the bottom of the session multiple times offering 16 points maximum and 13.50 at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4096.75 stop 4092.00. Short 4208.25 stop 4212.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +57 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting for FOMC Wednesday is likely.  

Quick Tip: Second Helpings

The volume level that held the market up on Friday was originally produced on May 24th. It was also Thursday’s day session low. And it generated 4 winning entry signals on Friday. 

What should we expect going forward? 

Traditional technical analysis looks at a price level that often works as strong support. While that may be in some cases, the...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4208.25 stop 4212.00

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -50 to +57 with most major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. AMZN/INTC earnings suggest risk-on. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4181.75 stopped out in the Globex session last night. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from zero to -50 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.  

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, and Trade Balance @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 9:00. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Bloomberg: Putin said there’s a risk that an escalating conflict could “spill far beyond the borders of the Middle East.” META down in pre-market on forecast of uncertainty. 

Quick Tip: When to Bank It

How traders approach their craft is very individual. Three traders using the same strategy may have different beliefs that vary their results, yet they follow the same asset selection and...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.  

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Earnings from 251 companies including META after the close. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore that deserves your attention, “"Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. Good luck. The problem is that our predictions are correct just enough to...